Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/09/2012 - Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Corey Perry scored the game-winning goal at 2:14 of the overtime period, sending the Anaheim Ducks to a 3-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes at Honda Center.
The deciding play began with a little luck for the Ducks. Hurricanes' winger Jussi Jokinen went back behind his net to pick up the puck and start the break. Jokinen, who was leaning on his left edge, was tripped from behind by Perry but the call wasn't made.
Perry chased down the loose disc on the left wing and sent a quick pass to Sheldon Brookbank, who sent it back to Perry and the 2011 Hart Trophy winner ripped a one-timer past Cam Ward for the victory.
"All these games that we win are going to be nail-bitters as we get closer to the playoffs," Ducks head coach Bruce Boudreau said. "So every win we get is going to be huge."
Nick Bonino and Saku Koivu scored in regulation and Jonas Hiller made 31 saves for the Ducks, who have won two straight.
Tuomo Ruutu and Eric Staal lit the lamp and Ward made 31 saves in defeat for the Hurricanes, who squandered a chance to secure their first three-game winning streak since October 12-18.
Carolina struck first at 17:57 of the opening period as a result of some great play off the rush.
Ruutu picked up the loose puck in the neutral zone and dished to Jiri Tlusty just inside the blue line. Tlusty let a quick shot go from the slot that was stopped by Hiller, but Ruutu showed great determination to bat the puck in from his knees after getting knocked down in front.
The Ducks answered to tie it at 12:48 of the second period when Lubomir Visnovsky ripped a slap shot from the right point that was deflected past Ward from in front by Bonino.
The Hurricanes regained the lead at 3:47 of the third frame off a turnover by the Ducks in their defensive zone.
Brookbank picked up the puck behind the net and attempted to reverse it around the boards, but it was picked off by Staal, who backhanded one from below the goal line that snuck past Hiller.
The Ducks, though, answered right back to tie it at 5:11 when Luca Sbisa fired a slap shot from the point that was kicked out by Ward, but he left a huge rebound and Koivu was parked in front to slam it into an empty net.
"Our effort was there," Staal said. It's just unfortunate things went against us in the overtime."
Game Notes
Koivu had 29 points in 45 career games against the Hurricanes...Ward fell to 2-0-1 in four career starts against the Ducks...Anaheim failed to score on its only power play chance while the Hurricanes went 0-for-2 with the man advantage...The Ducks will kickoff an eight-game road trip in Detroit on Saturday, while the Hurricanes will visit the Colorado Avalanche on Friday...It was Perry's third career overtime-winner.
<< Nowitzki leads Mavs over Nuggets
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dirk Nowitzki scored 25 points and pulled down
nine rebounds as the Dallas Mavericks defeated the Denver Nuggets 105-95 at
Pepsi Center on Wednesday.
Dallas had five players in double figures, including 17
<< Improved bench has Spurs ready to ride in watered-down West
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's tough to write an obituary for a team
that wins 61 games during the NBA's regular season but that didn't stop a
number of my peers from declaring the aging San Antonio Spurs dead on arrival
after they we
<< Duke's Austin Rivers beats buzzer, Tar Heels
Chapel Hill, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Duke trailed the entire second half until
Austin Rivers hit a three-pointer from the right wing as time expired, lifting
the 10th-ranked Blue Devils over No. 5 North Carolina, 85-84.
Rivers finished with
<< Miller, Sabres blank Bruins
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Miller made 36 saves to record his third
shutout of the season and 25th of his career as the Buffalo Sabres thumped the
Boston Bruins, 6-0, at First Niagara Center.
Jason Pominville netted a pair of go
Rockets hold off Blazers >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Goran Dragic filled in for an injured Kyle
Lowry and scored all 10 of his points in the fourth quarter as the Houston
Rockets downed the Portland Trail Blazers, 103-96.
Lowry, who left the game late
Rockets G Lowry leaves game >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Rockets guard Kyle Lowry left
Wednesday's game against the Portland Trail Blazers with a strained right
elbow.
The injury occurred late in the third quarter after Lowry's follow-through
Lewis, Kemp lead in LPGA opener; Tseng lurking >>
Victoria, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stacy Lewis and Sarah Kemp both posted
four-under 69s on Thursday as the 2012 LPGA season kicked off with the first
round of the Women's Australian Open.
This season also began much like last sea
Hantuchova, King advance to Pattaya quarters >>
Pattaya City, Thailand (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Daniela
Hantuchova of Slovakia and American Vania King were among the second-round
winners Thursday at the Pattaya Open.
The third-seeded Hantuchova notched a 6-3,
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
MySportsbook features easy-to-use online betting software that’s the most reliable in the industry. If you’re looking to bet underdogs, then this Sportsbook is the place - we have the best betting lines in the business. MySportsbook is your one-stop shop for all your betting needs - sports betting, poker, casino, and horse betting . MySportsbook offers every bet type with lightning fast settlement of wagers. Take advantage of free statistical analysis - including against-the-spread and straight-up trends - in MySportsbook’s game previews section. With MySportsbook there are unlimited free deposits and payouts - and no transaction fees!
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football sportsbook needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting